Global memory shortage could disrupt smartphone and PC markets in 2026: IDC
The global semiconductor industry is entering 2026 amid an increasingly severe memory chip shortage that is expected to push up prices and disrupt both the smartphone and PC markets. DRAM and storage prices have already risen sharply in late 2025, and industry analysts warn that the supply imbalance could persist well into 2027.
According to IDC, demand for memory is now materially outpacing supply, driven largely by the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure. Data centres and enterprise servers require far more memory per system than consumer devices, and memory manufacturers have increasingly prioritised these high-margin segments. As a result, production capacity has shifted away from conventional DRAM and NAND used in smartphones and PCs toward specialised memory such as high-bandwidth memory and high-capacity DDR5.
This reallocation of capacity is having a direct impact on consumer devices. With fewer wafers available for general-purpose memory, prices have increased and availability has tightened. IDC expects DRAM supply growth in 2026 to remain below historical norms at around 16 percent year-on-year, with NAND growth at roughly 17 percent.
In the smartphone market, the shortage is expected to reverse a long-standing trend of steadily improving specifications at stable prices. Memory accounts for a significant share of a phone’s cost, particularly in mid-range models. As prices rise, manufacturers are likely to either raise retail prices, reduce memory configurations, or delay upgrades. Brands that rely on high volumes and thin margins, including Xiaomi, Realme, OPPO, Vivo, and Transsion, are expected to face the greatest pressure. Apple and Samsung are better positioned due to long-term supply agreements, though even they are likely to limit RAM increases in 2026 flagship models.
IDC estimates that global smartphone shipments could decline by 2.9 percent in a moderate downside scenario next year, or by as much as 5.2 percent if the shortage persists. Average selling prices are expected to rise across the market, with sharper increases at the lower end.
The PC market is facing a similar challenge. The timing of the shortage coincides with a Windows refresh cycle and the industry’s push toward AI PCs, which typically require more memory. PC makers including Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and ASUS have already warned customers of price increases, with some signalling hikes of 15 to 20 percent in the second half of 2026.
Larger PC vendors are expected to be more resilient, potentially gaining share at the expense of smaller and regional players. Meanwhile, the higher cost of memory could slow adoption of AI PCs, as systems with 16GB or more RAM become increasingly expensive.
IDC says the memory shortage marks a structural shift rather than a short-term cycle. For consumers, this is likely to translate into higher prices, fewer specification upgrades, and longer replacement cycles across both smartphones and PCs through 2026.
